Overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs. Bent flyvbjerg, mette skamris holm, and soren buhl. Ladda ned laddas ned direkt megaprojects and risk provides the first detailed examination of the phenomenon of megaprojects. Alfred taubman college of architecture and urban planning. A danish geographer by name of bent flyvbjerg did research into cost. He works for better management of megaprojects and cities. Bent flyvbjerg world bank policy research working paper 3781, december 2005 the policy research working paper series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues.
The seattle project neatly corroborates flyvbjergs findings. View bent flyvbjerg s profile on linkedin, the worlds largest professional community. Bent also writes about the philosophy and methodology of social science. It is now due to be completed at the end of 2017, two years behind schedule, and berthas delays have only added to the steadily. Flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, 9.
An anatomy of ambition is a 2003 book by bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, and werner rothengatter, published by cambridge university press. He was previously professor of planning at aalborg university, denmark and chair of infrastructure policy and. The danish research team, which found that routine underestimation of costs spans all continents, project types, and decades, concluded that the old, reliable excuses unforeseen technical. Better forecasting for large capital projects mckinsey. The extent and magnitude of actual environmental impacts of projects are often very different from. Optimism bias, strategic misinterpretation and reference class. Bent flyvbjerg author of making social science matter. Power blurs the dividing line between rationality and rationalization. Megaprojects are inherently risky due to long planning horizons and complex interfaces. Wheeler, this book makes an important contribution to understanding the infrastructure development process. The oxford handbook of megaproject management hardcover.
He is professor of major programme management at oxford universitys said business school and the first director of the universitys bt centre for major programme management. What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic. Cost overruns of 50 per cent to 100 per cent in real terms are common in megaprojects. Technical complications of some kind arose in the project and led to increased costs. The book gives the strong impression that the big budget government and private projects like the channel tunnel, the oresund bridge and many rail. This round of research is based on the more than 5,400 projects that were in the database as of june 2012. Five misunderstandings about casestudy research arxiv.
This cited by count includes citations to the following articles in scholar. Nevertheless, major projects underperformance in terms of cost overruns, delays, and benefit shortfalls is frequently observed flyvbjerg, 2014 flyvbjerg, 2017. To provide a critique of bent flyybjergs work that has high relevance to the pm literature. Said business school working papers university of oxford. Often projects are led by planners and managers without. Managing mega projects content mega projects definition mega projects challenges driving and executing mega projects to success. Bent flyvbjerg and the outcomes of the aaps case methodology workshop.
Did megaproject research pioneer behavioral economics. The ones marked may be different from the article in the profile. Bent flyvbjerg is professor and chair of major programme management at oxford university. The approach flyvbjerg suggests is called reference class forecasting. The oxford handbook of megaproject management provides stateoftheart scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management. New scientist megaprojects and risk provides a fascinating look at the pervasiveness of misinformation in the planning of major construction projects and the systematic bias of such. The result is a rationality that is often as imaginary as the time in little town, yet with very real social and environmental consequences.
Like infrastructure is the great space shrinker, and power, wealth and status increasingly belong to those who know how to shrink space, or know how to benefit from space being shrunk. Bent flyvbjerg how optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation undermine implementation concept report no 17 chapter 3 concept ncept. Bent flyvbjerg, 2014, what you should know about megaprojects and why. Bent flyvbjerg, the leading and most cited authority in the field, has used crowdsourcing and 25 years of experience to cherrypick from several hundred articles and books the writings. Mega project definition a mega project is an extremely largescale investment project.
Delivering largescale it projects on time, on budget, and on. Said business school working papers olympic proportions. Flyvbjerg, bent, fem misforstaelser om casestudiet five misunderstandings about casestudy research february 2010. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at oxford. Editor of the oxford handbook of megaproject management.
Isbn 9781845427375 link to full text available through this repo. According to chief economist and director of transportation policy at infrastructure management group, inc. This explains cost overruns in terms of inaccurate and unreliable data. By wil burns, editorinchief, case studies in the environment. Megaprojects are large, complex projects that typically cost billions of dollars and impact millions of people, like building a highspeed rail line, a megadam, a national health or pensions it system, a new widebody aircraft, or staging the olympics. Bent flyvbjerg born 1952 is a danish economic geographer. Sunstein, 2016, the principle of the malevolent hiding hand. The core here is theories from behavioral studies, primarily optimism bias. Explaining cost overruns in infrastructural projects. Buhl d espite the enormous sums of money being spent on transportation infrastructure, surprisingly little systematic knowledge exists about the costs, bene.
Bent flyvbjerg first bt professor and inaugural chair of. Bent flyvbjerg demonstrates a sound method for improving cost forecasts here in the 2006 project management journal, its a fairly long and academic article, so ill provide a brief summary. Bent flyvbjerg first bt professor and inaugural chair. Apr 11, 2015 the seattle project neatly corroborates flyvbjergs findings. Fem misforstaelser om casestudiet five misunderstandings. An anatomy of ambition 2003 by bent flyvbjerg is a dry but interesting look at how expensive projects are chronically over budget, under utilised and delivered late. The professional associations role comment on bent flyvbjerg, how planners deal with uncomfortable knowledge. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works projects. Professor flyvbjergs research focuses on the better management of megaprojects, including the olympic games, and cities. An overview bent flyvbjerg, oxford university, uk this controversial, yet profound, paper challenges the prevailing wisdom relevant to mega project management. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. Delivering largescale it projects on time, on budget, and.
The iron law, or what every politician should know about. The case of transportation bent flyvbjerg, mette k. Flyvbjergs team has concluded that, most likely, lies are at the heart of the worldwide problem of cost underestimation on transportation projects. Flyvbjerg, bent 2008 public planning of megaprojects. In mid2008, the economist called current spending on infrastructure the biggest investment boom in history the economist, 7 june 2008, p. He is the most cited scholar in the world in megaproject planning and management. Bent flyvbjerg, 2017, did megaproject research pioneer behavioral economics. Essential readings contains the seminal articles from the growing body of research on megaproject planning and management along with an original introduction by the editor. Cost and cost overrun at the olympics 19602012 bent flyvbjerg allison stewart corresponding author, allison.
Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major. Powerfullyargued,withclearmethodological guidelines and practical examples, makingsocialsciencematter. He is professor of major programme management at oxford university s said business school and the first director of the universitys bt centre for major programme management. It was used in project management in practice for the first time in 2004 flyvbjerg and cowi, 2004. Bent flyvbjerg is the author of making social science matter 3. Bt professor and chair of major programme management, said business school. Moving beyond the purely analytic or technical, flyvbjerg compares the theoretical study of human activity with realworld situations and demonstrates how the social sciences can become relevant againinthemodernworld. Bent flyvbjerg shows that rationality is contextdependent and that the crucial context is determined by decisionmakers power. The list of examples of projects with cost overruns andor benefit shortfalls is seemingly endless flyvbjerg, 2005a here, the cooking of budgets to make this underperforming project look good on. Flyvbjerg, bent, priemus, hugo and van wee, bert, eds. Spending was the largest it had ever been as a share of world gdp. How inaccurate are demand forecasts in public works. Bent flyvbjerg, nils bruzelius, werner rothengatter.
Bent flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, 122. Flyvbjerg presents strong evidence showing how megaprojects usually unfold. Flyvbjerg s team has concluded that, most likely, lies are at the heart of the worldwide problem of cost underestimation on transportation projects. Demand forecasts that are wrong by 20 per cent to 70 per cent compared with actual developments are common. Bent flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, qualitative inquiry, vol.
Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at said business school and a professorial fellow of st annes college. Power and project management an appreciation stewart clegg, centre for management and organization studies, university of technology, sydney. What you should know about megaprojects pmi academic summary. And bent flyvbjergs damning analysis concentrates on a series of financial nightmares that should bring even the most casual reader out in a sweat. Pdf underestimating costs in public works projects.
The dubious ethics of the american planning association, 32 cities 157163. Bent flyvbjerg, university of oxford, said business school, faculty member. It is a fascinating account of how the promoters of multibillion dollar megaprojects systematically and selfservingly misinform. Bent flyvbjerg, five misunderstandings about casestudy research, qualitative.
He was previously professor of planning at aalborg university, denmark and chair of infrastructure policy and planning at delft university of technology, the netherlands. Bent flyvbjerg ten characteristics of megaprojects. He is the most cited scholar in the world in megaproject planning and management, and among the most cited in social science methodology. Bent flyvbjerg professor and founding chair of major programme management said business school oxford university draft 9. Often projects are led by planners and managers without deep domain experience who keep changing throughout the long project cycles that apply to megaprojects, leaving leadership weak. Project proposals often overestimate benefits and underestimate. Studies social sciences, management, and project management. Actors who are working with a specific project tend to be overoptimistic. Bent flyvbjerg is the first bt professor and inaugural chair of major programme management at oxford universitys said business school and a professorial fellow of st annes college. The writer of a case narrative always faces the question of what to. Bent flyvbjerg, a danish geographer and oxford business professor who coined the iron law of megaprojects, probably wouldnt be at all surprised by the governments irrational approval of.
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